What they don't tell you in corporate media.

Thursday 23 October 2014

Good time to buy Stocks or not?



In year 2000 during dotcom bubble sensex P/E was 22.69. Then it started collapsing all the way till 2003 when P/E fell to 13.74.

Then again it rose to 20.18 just before the US subprime collapse when it fell to 12.68 in 2009.

After that, as per the data above, 2010 peak was 21.05. Since sensex has gone up from about 20000 to 26000 or about 30% more, extrapolated P/E now must be around 21.05*1.3 = 27

Similarly, P/BV now is above 4.

Here is the sensex chart from 1998.

Should you buy stocks now when P/E is around 27 and P/BV of 4? I don't think it's a good idea. Even if you accept the central bank manipulations around the world, the safety band is now too low at such high valuations of the stocks.

Can it go even higher? May be but the risk is too high. Can you find some individual beaten down stock that offers good value? May be, but probably there is a reason why that stock's valuation is so low now even when market is at record high.

But that's just my opinion.

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